The UK property market has undergone numerous significant changes over the past few years, with the population facing the pandemic and businesses adapting to a new landscape. So, what’s the outlook for sellers this 2022? Is it a good idea to sell now or put your property on hold? Read on to learn more!
Will the UK Property Market Crash in 2022?
The pandemic caused a sharp drop in prices in the first half of the year, with the average price of a home in England and Wales falling by 3.7% to £247,000 in the three months to June, compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
However, there was a mini-boom in the housing market in the second half of the year, as buyers rushed to take advantage of the stamp duty holiday. This caused prices to rebound, and by December, they were 1.3% higher than a year earlier. Looking ahead to 2023, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) is forecasting that house prices will rise by 3.5%.
However, this is highly dependent on the stamp duty holiday being extended, which currently looks unlikely. If the stamp duty holiday is not extended, then prices are likely to fall, as buyers will no longer have this financial incentive. The CEBR is forecasting that prices could fall by as much as 5% in this scenario.
Will There Be a Demand for Larger Properties Following the Pandemic?
There has been a lot of speculation about whether the pandemic will permanently change how we live, with more people working from home and wanting more space. This could lead to a demand for larger properties, particularly in the countryside.
However, it is worth noting that the pandemic has caused a lot of financial uncertainty, which is likely to continue in the short-term at least. This could lead to people being more cautious about moving house, leading to a fall in demand for larger properties.
Will There Be Regional Variations in House Price Increases?
The UK housing market is made up of numerous smaller local markets, each with its own set of house prices. These prices can differ significantly, with Inner London having the highest average prices while the North East has the lowest.
Inflationary pressures on house prices vary by area. House price inflation in the UK was 7.8% during the last year, ranging from 3.6% in the North East to 9.7% in the East of England.
House prices in Outer London have grown the least, by 8.7%, and in the South East by 14.9% since the EU Brexit Referendum, in regions where the Remain vote was higher than the rest of the UK. Average home price changes since the EU Brexit Referendum largely match regional voting trends, with higher house price inflation in regions with a strong leave vote and lower house price inflation in places with a strong Remain vote.
Other Factors Driving the Rise in Property Prices This Year
Here are other factors driving the rise in UK property prices this year:
Rising Mortgage Rates Creating a FOMO Situation
Mortgage rates have been rising in recent months, which is likely to continue. This is likely to put pressure on buyers, as they will have to find a way to finance their purchase. This could lead to a situation where buyers feel like they need to buy now, before rates increase further. This could create a FOMO (fear of missing out) situation, where buyers feel like they need to buy now, before prices rise further.
Subdued Home Supply
The number of homes on the market is still relatively low, which is likely to continue to put upward pressure on prices. This is because there are more buyers than there are homes available for sale. This is likely to continue to be the case in the near future, as the number of homes being built is still relatively low.
Rising Inflation Rates
Inflation rates are rising, which is likely to put upward pressure on prices. This is because buyers will have more money to spend, and will be willing to pay more for a home. This could lead to a situation where prices rise faster than incomes, making it difficult for some buyers to afford a home.
Lower Construction Output From Last Year
Construction output is still below its pre-pandemic levels, which is likely to continue to put upward pressure on prices. This is because there are fewer homes being built than there is demand for them. This is likely to continue to be the case in the near future, as the number of homes being built is still relatively low.
Optimistic Response to Easing COVID Restrictions
The easing of COVID restrictions is likely to lead to an increase in demand for property, as people are able to move more freely. This is likely to lead to an increase in prices, as there is more demand for property than there is supply.
What are the UK House Price Predictions Beyond 2022?
The market is now predicting that the Bank of England base rate will be higher than it is now in the next few years, but it is uncertain what will happen after that. Generally, prices for houses in the UK go up over time, although there are periods when the economy is not doing well, and prices drop. These periods vary depending on where in the country you are looking.
The Bank of England base rate is not the only interest rate that affects mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are also influenced by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which sets monetary policy. The MPC can choose to raise or lower the base rate, depending on economic conditions. The current economic conditions in the UK are strong, with low unemployment and inflation.
This has led the MPC to raise the base rate, in order to keep inflation under control. The rise in the base rate is not good news for borrowers, as it will lead to higher interest rates on loans and credit cards. However, savers will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings accounts. The full impact of the interest rate rise will not be felt immediately, as banks and other lenders will take time to adjust their own rates. However, it is expected that mortgage rates will rise in the coming months.
Conclusion
It is difficult to say what the property market will look like in 2022 for sellers. However, it is important to stay informed and consult with a professional if you are thinking of selling your property. The market may be different in different parts of the country, so it is important to be aware of the trends in your area.
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